Happy New Year, and welcome to the first edition of 2026.
January always brings mixed energy into a business. People return ready to get going, yet most teams are still settling in. There is a natural pause as everyone tries to remember what the goals were and how the pieces fit together. At the same time, expectations land quickly. Targets reset. Budget discussions restart. And hiring becomes urgent before anyone has found their rhythm.
Over the past few weeks, I have spoken with many people leaders who feel this shift more keenly than usual. There is growing pressure on HR to play a bigger part in shaping strategy. Recent research reflects this. 70% of CEOs want their CHRO to play a major role in enterprise strategy, yet only 55% feel that is happening. Many HR leaders see the same gap from their side. Almost 90% list business acumen as a top priority for 2026, and 41% say it is the hardest skill to hire for in the HR function.
This is the backdrop for January. A month where organisations try to move fast, but the system has not fully warmed up yet.
The hiring landscape this January
Hiring is slowing at the decision stage
Time to first offer now sits at 68.5 days, a 22% rise. The biggest delay sits between interviews and offers. This is the point in the process where January pressure shows most. Managers feel the weight of early decisions and hesitate, and roles drift into the spring.
Application volume is climbing, but quality signals are harder to read
The busiest 10% of candidates submit 19 applications a week. 93% use AI tools for CVs and cover letters. Screening becomes heavier and more time consuming, and CVs start to look similar, which slows down shortlisting.
Movement is slower than it looks
55% of workers stay in roles they do not enjoy because of benefits, equity or visas. This makes January hiring more challenging because experienced candidates will think twice before making a move.
Taken together, this creates a January bottleneck. Roles need filling. Teams feel stretched. Decision-making slows. And the year has only just begun.
What this means for HR leaders right now
January is the one point in the year where you have a clean slate. Budgets are fresh. Headcount plans are set. Leaders want to begin with momentum. Yet this is also when the system is at its most fragile.
Two challenges tend to appear every year.
1. The first is a lack of shared understanding of what the business needs from each role. Without this, hiring becomes reactive, and interviews drift because decision makers are not working from the same picture.
2. The second is the pressure on managers. They are settling teams, closing reviews, kicking off the quarter, and recruiting at the same time. Their attention is divided, and hesitation follows.
Your role is to keep the process moving despite all of this. It is not easy, especially with the volume of applications January now brings.
How The Predictive Index (PI) supports HR leaders in January
January puts hiring teams under pressure before the month has even settled. Budgets have opened, headcount lists are live again, and roles that paused in Q4 return to the top of the agenda. Managers want progress, but they are still working through the start of year load. HR often ends up carrying the responsibility of getting the process moving.
This is where PI helps. It gives hiring teams a practical starting point when everything arrives at once. We begin by running a Job Assessment with the people who understand the role best. It captures the behavioural and cognitive demands linked to the outcomes the business needs this year. When this step is done well, hiring discussions move in the same direction.
January also brings a spike in applications. With 93% of candidates using AI tools for their CVs, it becomes harder to understand who is actually suited to the work. The PI Behavioural Assessment helps uncover how someone naturally works day to day, how they respond under pressure, and what they need to perform well.
We pair this with the cognitive assessment, which measures how quickly someone picks up new information and handles shifting priorities. Cognitive ability has a strong link with job performance, especially in roles that demand learning on the job or responding to changing needs.
Where I see the biggest impact is in the conversations that follow. Managers often feel unsure in January interviews because the weight of the year sits on the first few decisions. PI gives them a grounded way to talk through candidates, using insight that reflects how the person will handle the realities of the role, not just how they presented on the day. These conversations help teams move forward with more confidence and less hesitation.
When PI is used well in January, hiring teams tend to move in the same direction. Managers feel better supported in their decisions, the early stages of screening become lighter, and organisations avoid the delays that usually appear at the start of the year. It gives HR the space to begin the year with momentum rather than recovery, which is often the difference between a strong Q1 and one that never quite settles.
As we head into January
January brings a lot of pressure, and HR often feels it before anyone else. Hiring ramps up quickly, managers need support, and the business wants early movement. The data shows that this year will be no different, but it also shows where the bottlenecks are likely to appear. When you understand that pattern, the month becomes easier to manage.
My goal with this newsletter is to share insight that helps you start the year with fewer surprises. If you would like to talk through your Q1 hiring plans or sense check anything you are working on, feel free to reply.
Best wishes for a great 2026,
Dave Crumby
Founder at360 Talent Solutions
Certified PI Practitioner